The Analisys Of The Effect Of Production, International Prices, And Inflation On The Export Volume Of Indonesia Tea

الملخص

This study aims to analyze the effect of tea production, international tea prices, and inflation on the volume of Indonesian tea exports during the period 2004–2024. The research uses a quantitative approach with secondary time-series data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and Indonesian tea statistics. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis with the E-VIEWS program. The results show that tea production has a positive and significant effect on the export volume of Indonesian tea, indicating that an increase in production leads to higher export volumes. Meanwhile, international tea prices have a negative but insignificant effect, suggesting that fluctuations in global tea prices do not significantly influence Indonesia’s tea export performance. In addition, inflation has a positive but insignificant effect on export volume. Simultaneously, the F-test results indicate that tea production, international tea prices, and inflation significantly affect Indonesian tea export volumes. The coefficient of determination (R² = 0.833801) indicates that 83.3801% of the variation in Indonesian tea export volume can be explained by the three independent variables, while the remaining 16.6199% is influenced by other factors outside the model, such as domestic consumption, domestic tea prices, and exchange rates. These findings highlight the importance of improving production capacity and maintaining competitive export strategies to support the sustainability of Indonesian tea exports in the global market.

Keywords: Tea Production; International Tea Prices; Inflation; Indonesian Tea Exports.